Are Ryanair fares going up? According to the airline itself, probably, and by a lot. Ryanair reported its results early Monday, and boss Michael O'Leary said rising fuel costs mean the airline is "certainly looking at double-digit fare increases" next year. Profit for the six months to Sept. 30 fell 15% to €2.15 billion, even though Ryanair flew more people than ever.
That matters even if you've never set foot on a Ryanair plane. It's Europe's biggest airline by passengers, so when it moves fares, rivals like easyJet and Wizz Air usually move with it. If you're planning a trip around Europe in 2027, this is the clearest sign yet that the era of absurdly cheap hops between cities is under pressure.
What Ryanair Reported
Ryanair carried 125.8 million passengers between April and September, up 6% from a year earlier, and its planes were 95% full. Revenue rose 3% to about €10.1 billion. But costs climbed much faster, up 10%, and that's what ate into profit.
Passengers actually paid less this year. The average fare fell 4% to €55.70, or roughly $65, down from €58 a year earlier. Ryanair blamed part of that on the timing of Easter, which didn't fall fully inside the period this year, plus the war in the Middle East, which made people book later and pushed the airline to run more sales to fill seats.
Fuel is the big story. Ryanair locks in the price of most of its fuel in advance, a practice called hedging, and about 80% of what it needs through March 2027 is fixed at $67 a barrel. The other 20% has reportedly been costing around $130 to $140 a barrel since the conflict pushed oil prices up. "Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027," O'Leary said.
Are Europe Flights Getting Cheaper This Winter?
Not cheaper, but not dramatically pricier yet either. Ryanair said bookings for October through December are strong and fares are running slightly ahead of last year, with the final result depending on school breaks and the Christmas and New Year rush. It said it has "almost zero visibility" into January through March, which is usually when it fills planes with sales.
There'll also be a bit less to choose from. Ryanair expects its passenger numbers this winter to be about flat, with roughly 2 million seats taken out, and its capacity in Europe down slightly. It's reportedly pulling back in Austria, Belgium, Germany and parts of Spain, where it's been fighting airports and governments over taxes and fees, and adding flights in Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden. If you fly from Vienna or Berlin, you may notice fewer options.
Why Next Year Could Cost More
Here's where it gets expensive. Ryanair has only 25% of its fuel for the year starting April 2027 locked in, at $95 a barrel, far above this year's $67. At current prices, it expects its fuel bill to rise by about €2 billion.
"We need about a 20% fare increase to cover that kind of fuel price increase," O'Leary said. He added that he isn't sure Ryanair will get to 20%, but that it's "certainly looking at double-digit fare increases." The airline is also reviewing its own costs, from airport deals to possible temporary pay freezes, to soften the hit.
Fuel prices can change fast, so none of this is locked in. If the Middle East conflict eases and oil falls, Ryanair's math changes too. But for now, the airline that sets the floor for European fares is telling everyone to expect that floor to rise.
The Boeing Factor
Ryanair's growth depends on new planes from Boeing, especially the 737 MAX 10, a stretched version of the plane it already flies with more seats. Ryanair said the MAX 10 was certified by US regulators in October and expects Europe's safety regulator to follow by the end of December. Its first 16 are due between January and April 2027, in time for next summer.
That's good news for fares. More planes means more seats, and more seats in a busy market tends to keep prices from climbing as fast. Even so, Ryanair expects to carry about 214 million passengers in the year to March 2027, slightly fewer than it planned, and only modest growth after that.
What It Means for Your Trip
If you're planning a Europe trip for next spring or summer, booking earlier than usual looks like the smart move, before any fare increases show up in the prices. This winter, Ryanair's cheapest fares will still go to people who stay flexible on dates.
Watch the extras too. Ryanair's check-in desks and bag drops close earlier from Nov. 10, and missing that cutoff is one of the fastest ways to turn a cheap fare into an expensive one.
And if you're flying around Europe this month, check for strikes. France has a national strike on Thursday, Spain has one on Nov. 11 and Italy has several strike dates coming up.
