Why Your Next Cheap Flight Might Not Exist
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Why Your Next Cheap Flight Might Not Exist

Flair is pulling back from US routes, Ryanair has trimmed its forecast and Corendon is shrinking its fleet. When fuel costs jump, the airlines selling the cheapest seats feel it before anyone else.

Flair Airlines is scaling back its push into the United States and its pursuit of business travelers, and the reason is the price of jet fuel. Chief executive Len Corrado told the Canadian Press that fuel makes up close to a third of the airline's costs.

That share is the whole story. A full-service airline selling business class and premium economy alongside coach has more places to absorb a cost increase. An airline selling cheap seats has almost none, because the fare is the product.

Who is pulling back

Budget Airlines Cutting as Fuel Climbs

Flair
Pulling back from US routes and business travelers
Canada
Ryanair
Full-year forecast cut from 216m to 214m passengers
Europe
Corendon
Winter fleet shrinking from 30 aircraft to 21
Europe
AirAsia
Long-haul expansion shelved for now
Asia
US jet fuel, Sep 17
$4.53 a gallon
Global price, one week
Up 6.1%
Fuel at Flair
About a third of costs

Fuel prices from Airlines for America. Airline plans as stated by their executives in September 2026.

Contrail


The Same Week, the Same Story

Flair is not alone, and the list has grown quickly this month.

  • Ryanair cut its full-year passenger forecast from 216 million to 214 million, and chief executive Michael O'Leary warned that oil prices could push its fares up.
  • Corendon, a leisure airline flying Europeans to beach destinations, is shrinking its fleet from 30 aircraft to 21 this winter.
  • AirAsia has shelved its long-haul expansion, with co-founder Tony Fernandes saying now is not the time.

US jet fuel hit $4.53 a gallon on September 17 according to Airlines for America, and the global price rose 6.1% in a single week.

white and blue plane
Photo by Kevin Hackert / Unsplash

Why Budget Carriers Feel It First

Three things make low-cost airlines more exposed.

Their margins are thinner per seat. A few dollars of extra fuel cost matters more on a $59 fare than on a $590 one.

They fly more marginal routes. Budget carriers build networks out of thin city pairs that barely work in good conditions, and those are the first to stop making sense.

They hedge less. Large carriers often lock in fuel prices months ahead, which softens a spike. Smaller airlines frequently pay closer to the market rate, so a spike lands on them immediately.

Bigger airlines aren't immune either. American says fuel adds about $1 billion to its fourth-quarter costs, United has pulled some December flights and Southwest halved its growth plan for the year. The difference is that a network carrier trims the edges of its schedule, while a budget airline may pull out of a market completely.


What It Means for Fares

Cheap seats don't disappear overnight, though they do get scarcer, and the cheapest ones go first.

Practically, that means fewer $39 fares on quiet days and fewer routes flown once or twice a week. It also means less competition on the routes that remain. When a city loses its only budget airline, prices usually rise on every other carrier serving it.

If you're booking winter travel on a low-cost carrier, book earlier than you normally would, and check whether the route has more than one flight a week. A schedule that thin is the kind an airline drops when fuel stays expensive.

Written by

Zach Benitez

Zach Benitez is the editor in chief of Contrail. He has reviewed airlines in more than 50 countries and flies hundreds of thousands of miles a year to show readers what flying is really like. He's based in New York and studies at NYU.