If you've wondered why airfares are so high right now, the answer starts with jet fuel. Prices have swung sharply since the war with Iran began in late February, and they climbed again in September to $4.53 a gallon in the U.S., according to the Associated Press.
The International Air Transport Association, the airline industry's global trade group, says jet fuel averaged about $99 a barrel worldwide before the war began.
The Cost of Fuel
Fuel is one of an airline's biggest expenses. It expects fuel to make up nearly a third of airline operating costs this year, up from about a quarter in 2025, so price swings ripple quickly into fares.
Fighting in the region has disrupted oil and jet fuel supplies from the Persian Gulf. That's why prices have risen even in the U.S., a country that exports jet fuel.
Airfares
Why Flights Cost More Right Now
Fuel's share of airline costs
Sources: Associated Press and the International Air Transport Association.
Contrail
Flight Cuts
When fuel gets expensive, airlines don't just raise prices. They also cut flights they can no longer make money on, and fewer seats tend to push fares higher. United, for example, pulled some December flights and has warned of more cuts in 2027 if fuel stays expensive.
Across the industry, the upheaval has been widespread, and Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether in May.
The Lag in Prices
Airlines sell many tickets months ahead, which means price changes take time to show up in either direction. By the time fuel jumped again this summer, United had already sold about 35% of its tickets for the last three months of the year, and it couldn't raise those fares after the fact.
The same lag works against travelers when fuel gets cheaper. Once airlines have cut flights, they're in no hurry to add them back, so fares can stay high even after fuel prices ease.
Tips for Travelers
If you're planning holiday travel, booking earlier rather than waiting for a price drop is usually the safer bet right now. Flexible fares cost more upfront, but they let you rebook if prices fall or plans change.
Fare alerts for the routes you care about are worth setting up too. So is checking nearby alternate airports, where smaller airlines sometimes offer lower prices.
