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Which airline routes have the most competition? It depends a lot on where you live. We counted every scheduled seat on 24 of the busiest routes in the US for a week in mid-November, from New York to Los Angeles to Dallas and Houston, and worked out how much of each route the biggest airline controls. On some, five airlines are splitting the market almost evenly. On others, one airline sells three of every four seats.
The Battlegrounds
The most competitive route we looked at was Los Angeles to the San Francisco Bay Area. Five airlines fly it, and no one has more than 27% of the seats: Southwest has 27%, Alaska 26%, United 20%, Delta 18% and American 6%. With almost 450 flights a week between LAX and SFO, Oakland and San Jose, it's one of the few routes in the country where no airline can set the tone.
New York to Los Angeles is the closest race. Delta has 29.0% of the seats and United has 28.7%, a gap of about 160 seats a week out of more than 57,000. American and JetBlue each have just under a fifth, and Alaska has a small slice. It's the same five-way fight on New York to San Francisco, though United leads more clearly there, with 40%.
The biggest market in our set, New York to Miami and Fort Lauderdale, is a four-way contest. American leads with 32%, but Delta, United and JetBlue are all close behind, with more than 500 flights a week between them. Boston to New York and New York to Orlando look similar.
Where One Airline Calls the Shots
At the other end are routes where one airline has most of the seats, almost always because one end is its fortress hub.
- Dallas to Los Angeles: American has 78% of the seats.
- Atlanta to Los Angeles: Delta has 76%.
- Atlanta to Orlando: Delta has 71%.
- Chicago O'Hare to Denver: United has 69%.
- New York to Atlanta: Delta has 65%.
- Washington National to LaGuardia: only two airlines fly it, American with 56% and Delta with 44%.
Who Controls Your Route
Real Competition, or One Airline?
Biggest airline's share of seats, one week in November
Contrail analysis of scheduled seats on 24 busy US routes, Nov. 9–15.
Contrail
On several of these, the main challenger isn't another big airline. It's Frontier. The budget airline flies 13 of our 24 routes, and on hub routes like Atlanta to Orlando or Atlanta to Los Angeles, it's often the only real alternative to Delta. Southwest plays a similar role in the West, where it leads Los Angeles to Las Vegas, Dallas to Houston and Denver to Phoenix.
Why It Matters for Your Fare
More airlines on a route tends to mean more pressure to keep fares low and more flight times to choose from. When one airline controls most of the seats, it has much less reason to discount, and if it cancels your flight there may not be many other seats to rebook you on.
You can use this when you book. If you live near a hub dominated by one airline, check nearby airports where competition is stronger. Compare the main airline against the budget option on the same route, which is often the only thing holding fares in check. And on the battleground routes, where airlines are fighting for your business, it's worth comparing more than just price. Seats, Wi-Fi and the kind of plane can differ a lot, so check which plane you'll actually be on.
